12 weeks on NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released their NFL Week 13 spreads and over/unders. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.
NFL Week 13 Spreads, Betting Lines, Game Picks, Over/Unders
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-1)
Mitchell Trubisky had his best game in a long time, but that’s not really saying much. The former second overall pick had a relatively ok game in Week 12, completing 61% of his passes for 278 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions while running in another score. Trubisky’s short-term benching appears to have paid off, as Trubisky can be not terrible against bad defenses. Assuming that Matthew Stafford doesn’t play in this one, this should be a low-scoring affair. Jeff Driskel is nobody’s idea of an ideal starting quarterback, and Chicago’s defense should limit Detroit’s offensive output.
Pick: Bears win
Over/Under: 41 [Pick: Under]
Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
The Dallas Cowboys couldn’t get anything going on offense last week, but it’s easy to call that game an outlier. The Cowboys went on the road against the best team in the AFC and had to play in a monsoon. None of those things will be the case in Week 13 against the Buffalo Bills. Dak Prescott should return to the MVP discussion and Ezekiel Elliott should run wild against a deceptively weak Buffalo Bills run defense. Josh Allen doesn’t have the tools to keep up with the Cowboys, especially going on the road.
Pick: Cowboys win, cover spread
Over/Under: 45 [Pick: Under]
New Orleans Saints (-7) at Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons held the New Orleans Saints in check the last time these two teams met, but that was probably a one-week fluke. By and large, Atlanta’s defense has been atrocious while the New Orleans offense has been one of the best with Drew Brees under center. Matt Ryan is going to keep this one close, but he ultimately won’t be able to singlehandedly drag his team to victory against one the NFC’s elite units.
Pick: Saints win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 48.5 [Pick: Over]
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
After a terrible start to the season, Baker Mayfield is back to looking like one of the more promising young quarterbacks in the league. Over the past three weeks, the former first-overall pick has completed 64.4% of his passes for 758 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are finally playing up to their potential as Cleveland’s offense starts to round into shape. The same cannot be said for the Pittsburgh Steelers, as they recently benched Mason Rudolph for Devlin Hodges. Neither quarterback looked great this season, and Cleveland defense should hold this unit in check. Pittsburgh’s defense can make this close, but not so close that you can bet on a 1.5-point spread.
Pick: Browns win, cover spread
Over/Under: 40.5 [Pick: Over]
New York Jets (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
This is insulting to the New York Jets. While their overall record may not be great, the New York Jets have been a solid team ever since Sam Darnold hit his stride a few weeks ago. While they probably won’t replicate their 34-3 beatdown of the Oakland Raiders, they should blow the Bengals out of the water. The Cincinnati Bengals are easily the worst team in the league and aren’t capable of putting up a fight with Ryan Finley under center. Look for the Jets to win this one comfortably.
Pick: Jets win, cover spread
Over/Under: 41 [Pick: Under]
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Philadelphia Eagles are probably the biggest disappointment in the NFL. Once heralded as Super Bowl favorites, Carson Wentz and company just haven’t looked right all year. They’re easily a better team than the Miami Dolphins, but the Dolphins have managed to put up some good efforts over the past few weeks. Still, the talent disparity between these two teams is too great, and Philadelphia should come away with a victory, but don’t be surprised if Miami makes it interesting.
Pick: Eagles win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 45.5 [Pick: Under]
San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-5)
This is the best game of the week. Two of the three best teams in football face off in what should an action-packed thriller. The San Francisco 49ers have the best defense in the league, but it’s hard to imagine any unit stopping Lamar Jackson. Jackson’s skill set is so unique that he easily ran over the New England Patriots, and he should be able to do the same to the 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t been great this season, but he’s shown the ability to move the ball through the air when he needs to. This one’s going to go down to the wire, but home field advantage states the Baltimore Ravens will win this one.
Pick: Ravens win, cover spread
Over/Under: 46 [Pick: Over]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Nick Foles is not living up to expectations in Jacksonville. While the one-time Super Bowl MVP had a decent stat line in Week 12, most of those numbers were accumulated in garbage time. The fact of the matter is that this team simply hasn’t been the same since trading away Jalen Ramsey and Nick Foles is too volatile to trust on a weekly basis. Jameis Winston is anything but a known commodity at quarterback, but I trust him more than Foles in this matchup.
Pick: Buccaneers win
Over/Under: 49.5 [Pick: Over]
Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-9.5)
Kyle Allen probably isn’t the future of the Carolina Panthers, but he’s an above-average backup capable of beating bad defenses. The Washington Redskins have a terrible defense, complemented by a terrible everything else. Despite winning last week, it’s hard to trust Dwayne Haskins and company to do much of anything on offense, or the defense to stop Christian McCaffrey and company. The only hope for covering the spread is that Bill Callahan’s run-first philosophy runs out the clock before the Panthers have a chance to take an insurmountable lead.
Pick: Panthers win, cover spread
Over/Under: 41 [Pick: Under]
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Los Angeles Rams took a major step back in 2019, while the Arizona Cardinals appear to be on the rise. Arizona’s defense is still a work-in-progress, but the offense looks great under Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. Murray should be able to move the ball at will against this unit while Jared Goff and company continue their season-long struggles. After nearly beating the San Francisco 49ers two weeks ago, the Cardinals are finally going to come out on top against a division foe.
Pick: Cardinals win
Over/Under: 47 [Pick: Over]
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-1)
Philip Rivers might not be an elite quarterback anymore, but this spread is surprising. The Chargers still have a solid defense, reliable running game, and talent at the wide receiver position. Even if Rivers can’t play like his 2017 self, he’s still considerably better than Brandon Allen. The Chargers are the better all-around team and have the better quarterback. Home field advantage shouldn’t be enough to make the Broncos favorites in this one.
Pick: Chargers win
Over/Under: 38.5 [Pick: Over]
New England Patriots (-4) at Houston Texans
This game should be a blast. The New England Patriots are their elite defense face off against Deshaun Watson, old friend Bill O’Brien, and the Houston Texans. Watson’s having a great season in his own right, but he can be slowed by the right defense. Bill O’Brien has yet to beat New England during his time with the Texans, and Tom Brady is playing better with Isaiah Wynn back in the lineup. Even though they have to travel south, the Patriots should still come out on top.
Pick: Patriots win, cover spread
Over/Under: 44.5 [Pick: Under]
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
The battle of the best wild card teams in the league should be a fantastic showdown. After a rough September, Kirk Cousins has managed to sustain an elite level of play for the vast majority of the season. However, he’s facing off against Russell Wilson, who’s having an elite season in his own right. If these two teams played each other 100 times, each team would probably win 50. However, if forced to pick a winner, I’m going with home field advantage and the better quarterback.
Pick: Seahawks win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 49 [Pick: Over]
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