Week 10 of the NFL season is right around the corner, and fantasy football owners everywhere are trying to optimize their lineups. Deciding on who to start and sit isn’t easy, especially when a player like Christian Kirk is due for a big game. Let’s take a dive into all of the best start em’, sit em’ matchups of the week to put together the best possible lineup.
Christian Kirk, Michael Gallup Highlight Fantasy Football Week 10 Wide Receiver Start/Sits
Start: Christian Kirk
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk is long overdue for a breakout performance. The former second-round pick missed part of the season with an injury, but should be back at full health in Week 10. Kirk currently sits as the WR57 in standard scoring, but all the underlying numbers suggest that he’s about to have a huge game or two.
Based on his average depth of target, target share, and snap counts, Kirk should average 6.37 receptions and 60.5 receiving yards per game. Instead, Kirk’s only managed to record 5.7 receptions and 54.8 yards per game. Additionally, Kirk’s received five red zone targets in his six games but has yet to record a touchdown. Positive regression is coming, which means that Kirk is going to have a big game sooner or later. Make sure he’s in your lineup when he goes off.
Sit: Michael Gallup
Michael Gallup isn’t a terrible play by any means, but you can probably do better. The second-year wide receiver simply hasn’t been the same ever since he suffered an injury early in the season. Over his past three games, Gallup has recorded just nine receptions for 115 yards and one touchdown. This obviously isn’t what you want for fantasy, and the underlying numbers don’t paint a prettier picture.
Gallup is catching fewer passes per game than you’d expect from his target share (5.5 expected, 4.8 actual), but he’s dramatically overachieving when it comes to yardage. Based on the volume and quality of his targets, Gallup should have 58 receiving yards per game. Instead, he’s averaging 75.7. This is simply unsustainable and is going to come back down to Earth at some point in the near future. Keep in mind that my projected yardage is based on targets, not receptions, so positive regression from his catches should be offset by the lack of yardage. When considering that Gallup only has three red zone targets, it’s hard to imagine him doing much for fantasy this week.
Start: DeVante Parker
Nobody wants to go anywhere near the Miami Dolphins, but DeVante Parker is a smart play both for Week 10 and the foreseeable future. Parker had a dependable target share throughout the season and had recorded at least 50 yards or a touchdown in seven of his nine games. There is no reason to believe that this will change any time soon, especially since Preston Williams is now done for the season.
Despite being an undrafted free agent, Preston Williams actually demanded a sizable percentage of the targets. Now that he’s out of the way, Parker is clearly the top option in the passing attack. Ryan Fitzpatrick loves throwing the ball to his wide receivers, and the Dolphins are going to be trailing in most of their games. Parker should have a dependable target share and should put up solid WR2 numbers moving forward.
Sit: Tyler Boyd
Tyler Boyd should be the ideal bounce-back candidate. Based on expected production, Boyd is at or near the very top in all of my positive regression models. Based on his usage, Boyd should average one more reception, five more receiving yards, and 0.1 more touchdowns per game than he currently is. If Andy Dalton were still under center, Boyd would be atop my “start” list.
However, Andy Dalton isn’t starting. The Cincinnati Bengals decided to welcome in the future over the bye week, elevating rookie quarterback Ryan Finley to the starting spot. Finley is anything but tested and is inheriting perhaps the worst situation of any starting quarterback in the league. Elite talents could overcome the nightmare that is the Cincinnati Bengals, but Finley was a fourth-round pick. Chances are, he’s going to struggle during his first taste of NFL action. Until Finley proves he can reliably get the ball to Boyd, you need to keep him on your bench.
Start: Robert Woods
Robert Woods has disappointed a lot of fantasy football owners this year. Once considered one of the safest players in fantasy, Woods only has one game with double-digit fantasy points in standard scoring formats. While he hasn’t played at his usual level this season, he should bounce back in Week 10.
The Los Angeles Rams will likely be without Brandin Cooks for the foreseeable future. Cooks suffered a concussion in Week 8, spent time with a concussion specialist, and reportedly has no timeline for return. Somebody is going to have to step up with Cooks out of the way, and Woods is the most likely candidate. Cooper Kupp is already a stud and can’t take on any additional work. Josh Reynolds and Gerald Everett could (and probably will) see some additional targets, but Woods should be the primary beneficiary. Additionally, Woods doesn’t have a single touchdown and is long overdue for a score. He might not have the highest ceiling, but he’s a safe play who should give you a WR2 performance.
Embed from Getty Images